luckadjusted

Divisional round 2020 · January 16, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Bills, Divisional round 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 17–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Bills were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:58 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 50 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 3
Buffalo Bills 17

January 16, 2021 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −2.5

Luck index +15 Bills about even · −15 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 BAL 20 BUF 7
  2. 2 BAL 17 BUF 14
  3. 3 BAL 10 BUF 12
  4. 4 BAL 16 BUF 22
  5. 5 BAL 6 BUF 14
  6. 6 BAL 20 BUF 30
  7. 7 BAL 16 BUF 30
  8. 8 BAL 9 BUF 26
  9. 9 BAL 10 BUF 31
  10. 10 BAL 7 BUF 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 15% of them, Bills 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+0.9%
Ravens by 9–163.4%
Ravens by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bills by 1–820.4%
Bills by 9–1625.6%
Bills by 17+38.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 14.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 41 yds missed · 82% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 43 yds missed · 77% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 44 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:44 Defensive Offside on the Bills (A.J. Klein), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1731 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +10% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 7:40 J. Tucker missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +9% BUF BAL: Punt
3 Q2 12:00 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
4 Q2 10:52 J. Tucker missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 20 of 23 from 45+ before +9% BUF BAL: Punt
5 Q2 5:27 The Ravens converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q3 5:48 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% BAL BAL: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 1:43 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BAL BAL: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 0:58 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +50% BUF BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dane Jackson (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 2% · Bills 98%

Final margin
Bills by 14
Luck in points
0.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 15% · Bills 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2020 games · Ravens · Bills

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