2020 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2020: game by game
The Ravens went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Browns | W 38–6 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | @ Texans | W 33–16 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 3 | vs Chiefs | L 20–34 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 4 | @ Washington | W 31–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 5 | vs Bengals | W 27–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 6 | @ Eagles | W 30–28 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 8 | vs Steelers | L 24–28 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 9 | @ Colts | W 24–10 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 10 | @ Patriots | L 17–23 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 11 | vs Titans | L 24–30 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 12 | @ Steelers | L 14–19 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 13 | vs Cowboys | W 34–17 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 14 | @ Browns | W 47–42 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 15 | vs Jaguars | W 40–14 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 16 | vs Giants | W 27–13 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 17 | @ Bengals | W 38–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Wild Card | @ Titans | W 20–13 | 79% | +21 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | L 3–17 | 18% | −18 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.68 | +28.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.44 | +16.9 |
| Injuries | +0.20 | +8.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.09 | +16.9 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.60 | −18.6 |