luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Baltimore Ravens, 2020: game by game

The Ravens went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.9.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Browns W 38–6 95% +5
Week 2 @ Texans W 33–16 89% +11
Week 3 vs Chiefs L 20–34 17% −17
Week 4 @ Washington W 31–17 95% +5
Week 5 vs Bengals W 27–3 97% +3
Week 6 @ Eagles W 30–28 65% +35
Week 8 vs Steelers L 24–28 63% −63
Week 9 @ Colts W 24–10 46% +54
Week 10 @ Patriots L 17–23 7% −8
Week 11 vs Titans L 24–30 25% −25
Week 12 @ Steelers L 14–19 14% −14
Week 13 vs Cowboys W 34–17 77% +23
Week 14 @ Browns W 47–42 64% +36
Week 15 vs Jaguars W 40–14 77% +23
Week 16 vs Giants W 27–13 92% +8
Week 17 @ Bengals W 38–3 96% +4
Wild Card @ Titans W 20–13 73% +27
Divisional round @ Bills L 3–17 15% −15

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+28.6+1.79
3rd & 4th downs+17.2+1.07
Fumble bounces+12.6+0.79
Injuries+11.1+0.70
Rest−1.6−0.10
Judgment calls−37.1−2.32