luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Ravens, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 27–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.8 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 82% favorites.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 3
Baltimore Ravens 27

October 11, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −12.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 10 BAL 13
  2. 2 CIN 15 BAL 21
  3. 3 CIN 10 BAL 20
  4. 4 CIN 6 BAL 19
  5. 5 CIN 7 BAL 23
  6. 6 CIN 17 BAL 35
  7. 7 CIN 9 BAL 30
  8. 8 CIN 17 BAL 41
  9. 9 CIN 6 BAL 35
  10. 10 CIN 0 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 3% of them, Ravens 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.1%
Bengals by 9–160.4%
Bengals by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–88.4%
Ravens by 9–1619.0%
Ravens by 17+69.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 19.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% BAL CIN: Punt
2 Q1 8:05 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% BAL CIN: Turnover
3 Q1 6:46 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:59 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:51 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1121 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q2 9:40 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BAL CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (CIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 24
Luck in points
4.5 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 3% · Ravens 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Bengals · Ravens

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