luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Ravens, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 27–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 82% favorites.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 3
Baltimore Ravens 27

October 11, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −12.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 14 BAL 17
  2. 2 CIN 10 BAL 17
  3. 3 CIN 10 BAL 20
  4. 4 CIN 7 BAL 20
  5. 5 CIN 19 BAL 35
  6. 6 CIN 16 BAL 33
  7. 7 CIN 7 BAL 28
  8. 8 CIN 6 BAL 30
  9. 9 CIN 6 BAL 34
  10. 10 CIN 3 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 3% of them, Ravens 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.1%
Bengals by 9–160.4%
Bengals by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–87.4%
Ravens by 9–1618.0%
Ravens by 17+71.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 24, without the luck Ravens by 19.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 61 yds missed · 59% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 5 for 40 yards, Ravens 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Carlos Dunlap), 15 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 10:09 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 9:51 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% CIN +3.6 pts
Q2 9:30 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 7:52 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 3:06 False Start on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q3 10:15 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 0:29 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 12:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% BAL CIN: Punt
2 Q1 8:05 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% BAL CIN: Turnover
3 Q1 6:46 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:59 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:51 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1121 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q2 0:02 J. Tucker missed a 61-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 12 of 12 from 45+ before +3% CIN BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (CIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 24
Luck in points
4.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 19.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 3% · Ravens 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Bengals · Ravens

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