luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Jets, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Jets 30–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:58 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 30
New York Jets 10

October 11, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7

Luck index +2 Cardinals about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 ARI 37 NYJ 0
  2. 2 ARI 43 NYJ 13
  3. 3 ARI 40 NYJ 13
  4. 4 ARI 37 NYJ 14
  5. 5 ARI 39 NYJ 19
  6. 6 ARI 24 NYJ 6
  7. 7 ARI 28 NYJ 13
  8. 8 ARI 17 NYJ 6
  9. 9 ARI 28 NYJ 20
  10. 10 ARI 20 NYJ 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 98% of them, Jets 2%. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+79.1%
Cardinals by 9–1613.1%
Cardinals by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Jets by 1–81.5%
Jets by 9–160.4%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 16.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:40 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:49 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% ARI NYJ: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 9:05 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% ARI NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 7:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +16% NYJ ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:09 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:49 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:51 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1048 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 10:43 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 960 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.1 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Banjo (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devon Kennard (ARI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Cardinals by 20
Luck in points
3.8 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 98% · Jets 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Cardinals · Jets

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