luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Jets, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Jets 30–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:09 left): the Cardinals converted 3rd & 15, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 30
New York Jets 10

October 11, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7

Luck index +2 Cardinals about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 ARI 40 NYJ 3
  2. 2 ARI 33 NYJ 3
  3. 3 ARI 33 NYJ 6
  4. 4 ARI 41 NYJ 17
  5. 5 ARI 23 NYJ 3
  6. 6 ARI 23 NYJ 6
  7. 7 ARI 27 NYJ 13
  8. 8 ARI 20 NYJ 10
  9. 9 ARI 20 NYJ 13
  10. 10 ARI 13 NYJ 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 98% of them, Jets 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+80.3%
Cardinals by 9–1613.5%
Cardinals by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–81.5%
Jets by 9–160.3%
Jets by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 20, without the luck Cardinals by 15. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 59 yards, Jets 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:22 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q1 0:53 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Deionte Thompson), 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 13:50 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 5 yards 0% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q2 7:48 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 5:36 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 3:38 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 4 yards +2% ARI +1.3 pts
Q2 1:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Le'Veon Bell), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 10:22 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 9:49 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 0:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 6 yards +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 0:00 False Start on the Jets (Trevon Wesco), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 13:51 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +2.9 pts
Q4 11:28 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Deionte Thompson), 3 yards 0% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q4 10:43 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +4.4 pts
Q4 8:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards 0% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 8:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Jordan Jenkins), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:59 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +4% ARI NYJ: Punt
2 Q2 14:21 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 9:49 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% ARI NYJ: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 9:05 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% ARI NYJ: Field goal
5 Q2 7:48 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:09 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:51 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1048 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 10:43 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 960 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by j.flacco · 0.1 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Banjo (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devon Kennard (ARI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Cardinals by 20
Luck in points
5.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 98% · Jets 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Cardinals · Jets

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