luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Steelers, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Eagles 38–29 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.3 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:29 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 21, worth 28 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 29
Pittsburgh Steelers 38

October 11, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −7.5

Luck index +28 Steelers lucky · −28 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 34 PIT 21
  2. 2 PHI 21 PIT 14
  3. 3 PHI 16 PIT 13
  4. 4 PHI 14 PIT 16
  5. 5 PHI 23 PIT 27
  6. 6 PHI 10 PIT 17
  7. 7 PHI 24 PIT 34
  8. 8 PHI 10 PIT 23
  9. 9 PHI 17 PIT 34
  10. 10 PHI 7 PIT 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 28% of them, Steelers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+2.9%
Eagles by 9–166.2%
Eagles by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation4.5%
Steelers by 1–828.1%
Steelers by 9–1621.6%
Steelers by 17+21.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Elliott, 57 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:19 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +18% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:57 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:50 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% PIT PIT: Turnover
4 Q4 7:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 142 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +14% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:29 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% PHI PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:27 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% PIT PHI: Missed field goal
7 Q4 3:23 J. Elliott missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before +21% PIT PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 3:04 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 6% · Steelers 94%

Final margin
Steelers by 9
Luck in points
3.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 28% · Steelers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Eagles · Steelers

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