luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Falcons, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 23–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Falcons: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:54 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 6, worth 8 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Carolina Panthers 23
Atlanta Falcons 16

October 11, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +5 Panthers about even · −5 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 10, Falcons win 0.

  1. 1 CAR 30 ATL 0
  2. 2 CAR 41 ATL 17
  3. 3 CAR 51 ATL 30
  4. 4 CAR 35 ATL 17
  5. 5 CAR 37 ATL 21
  6. 6 CAR 27 ATL 14
  7. 7 CAR 17 ATL 7
  8. 8 CAR 35 ATL 27
  9. 9 CAR 20 ATL 14
  10. 10 CAR 20 ATL 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Falcons

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

45 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.31 +0.10 better by 0.21
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.15 better by 0.01
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.10 better by 0.04
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed +0.31 +0.16 worse by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 95% of them, Falcons 5%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+58.8%
Panthers by 9–1621.3%
Panthers by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Falcons by 1–83.5%
Falcons by 9–161.0%
Falcons by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Panthers by 7, without the luck Panthers by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Slye, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • Y. Koo, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 25 yards, Falcons 3 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:15 Encroachment on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q1 3:02 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 9:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% CAR +1.5 pts
Q2 1:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Foyesade Oluokun), 15 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q3 14:55 Encroachment on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 11:29 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 3:00 Clipping on the Falcons, 15 yards +3% CAR +1.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:02 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q1 1:04 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +4% ATL CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 9:58 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% ATL CAR: Field goal
4 Q2 6:14 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q2 2:40 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:06 The Falcons converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q3 0:54 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 14:56 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% CAR ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 99% · Falcons 1%

Final margin
Panthers by 7
Luck in points
2.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 95% · Falcons 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Panthers · Falcons

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