Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Panthers at Falcons, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Falcons 23–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 10 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Falcons.
An off day for the Falcons: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:55 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Panthers about even · −5 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 10, Falcons win 0.
- 1 CAR 43 ATL 10
- 2 CAR 41 ATL 13
- 3 CAR 34 ATL 10
- 4 CAR 19 ATL 0
- 5 CAR 37 ATL 20
- 6 CAR 17 ATL 3
- 7 CAR 31 ATL 20
- 8 CAR 19 ATL 10
- 9 CAR 24 ATL 19
- 10 CAR 16 ATL 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Falcons
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.10 | better by 0.21 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 | better by 0.01 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.10 | better by 0.04 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.16 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 95% of them, Falcons 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 56.7% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Panthers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 7.6.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Slye, 39 yds made · 90% expected
- Y. Koo, 46 yds made · 81% expected
- Y. Koo, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 69% expected
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:26 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:02 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:58 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% ATL | CAR: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:40 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +20% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:06 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +9% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 0:54 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 14:56 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% CAR | ATL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 8:55 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +23% CAR | ATL: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 97% · Falcons 3%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 95% · Falcons 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · 
Panthers · 
Falcons
More from Week 5 2020
- Buccaneers at Bears CHI 20–19 · replay 42% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jets ARI 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 30–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Rams at Washington LA 30–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs LV 40–32 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Steelers PIT 38–29 · replay 72% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers MIA 43–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Browns CLE 32–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 37–34 · replay 96% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 27–26 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chargers at Saints NO 30–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Bills at Titans TEN 42–16 · replay 50% for the winner