2020 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2020: game by game

The Falcons went 4–12 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Seahawks	L 25–38	66%	−66
Week 2	@ Cowboys	L 39–40	44%	−44
Week 3	vs Bears	L 26–30	82%	−82
Week 4	@ Packers	L 16–30	28%	−28
Week 5	vs Panthers	L 16–23	5%	−5
Week 6	@ Vikings	W 40–23	10%	+90
Week 7	vs Lions	L 22–23	21%	−21
Week 8	@ Panthers	W 25–17	37%	+63
Week 9	vs Broncos	W 34–27	55%	+45
Week 11	@ Saints	L 9–24	8%	−8
Week 12	vs Raiders	W 43–6	83%	+17
Week 13	vs Saints	L 16–21	44%	−44
Week 14	@ Chargers	L 17–20	77%	−77
Week 15	vs Buccaneers	L 27–31	25%	−25
Week 16	@ Chiefs	L 14–17	13%	−13
Week 17	@ Buccaneers	L 27–44	2%	−2

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −66 vs SEA

Wk 2 −44 @ DAL

Wk 3 −82 vs CHI

Wk 4 −28 @ GB

Wk 5 −5 vs CAR

Wk 6 +90 @ MIN

Wk 7 −21 vs DET

Wk 8 +63 @ CAR

Wk 9 +45 vs DEN

Wk 11 −8 @ NO

Wk 12 +17 vs LV

Wk 13 −44 vs NO

Wk 14 −77 @ LAC

Wk 15 −25 vs TB

Wk 16 −13 @ KC

Wk 17 −2 @ TB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+29.9	+1.87
Injuries	+16.7	+1.04
Kicks	+9.6	+0.60
3rd & 4th downs	+9.6	+0.60
Rest	+1.6	+0.10
Fumble bounces	−1.6	−0.10