2020 season · final

Atlanta Falcons, 2020: game by game

The Falcons went 4–12 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.1 wins. Luck cost them 2.1: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.

Every game

How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Seahawks	L 25–38	67%	−67
Week 2	@ Cowboys	L 39–40	41%	−41
Week 3	vs Bears	L 26–30	84%	−84
Week 4	@ Packers	L 16–30	28%	−28
Week 5	vs Panthers	L 16–23	5%	−5
Week 6	@ Vikings	W 40–23	9%	+91
Week 7	vs Lions	L 22–23	21%	−21
Week 8	@ Panthers	W 25–17	37%	+63
Week 9	vs Broncos	W 34–27	60%	+40
Week 11	@ Saints	L 9–24	7%	−7
Week 12	vs Raiders	W 43–6	82%	+18
Week 13	vs Saints	L 16–21	45%	−45
Week 14	@ Chargers	L 17–20	77%	−77
Week 15	vs Buccaneers	L 27–31	24%	−24
Week 16	@ Chiefs	L 14–17	16%	−16
Week 17	@ Buccaneers	L 27–44	2%	−2

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −67 vs SEA

Wk 2 −41 @ DAL

Wk 3 −84 vs CHI

Wk 4 −28 @ GB

Wk 5 −5 vs CAR

Wk 6 +91 @ MIN

Wk 7 −21 vs DET

Wk 8 +63 @ CAR

Wk 9 +40 vs DEN

Wk 11 −7 @ NO

Wk 12 +18 vs LV

Wk 13 −45 vs NO

Wk 14 −77 @ LAC

Wk 15 −24 vs TB

Wk 16 −16 @ KC

Wk 17 −2 @ TB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.37	+12.5
Judgment calls	+0.25	+15.6
Fumble bounces	+0.09	−1.7
Rest	+0.04	+1.6
Kicks	−0.22	+9.8