luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Falcons?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +0.91 points a game to the Falcons since 2019, the 3rd-most of 32 teams. The Falcons haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Falcons minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20263−2.83 27th1712 –
202517+0.43 13th5660 –
202417−0.08 17th5968 –
202317+1.23 4th5462 –
202217+0.69 6th4662 –
202117+1.75 3rd4970 –
202016+1.87 4th5264 –
201916+1.24 10th7977 –

Biggest calls for the Falcons

  1. Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 3 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 17 · 30 pts of win probability
  3. Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 30 yards · 2024 Week 4 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 6 · 22 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards · 2025 Week 10 · 33 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 13 · 24 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards · 2024 Week 18 · 23 pts of win probability
  4. Tripping on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 9 · 21 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 40 yards · 2022 Week 17 · 18 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Falcons?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +0.91 points a game to the Falcons since 2019, the 3rd-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

The Falcons haven’t played a playoff game since 2019.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Atlanta Falcons, every season