Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025
Falcons vs Colts, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Falcons 31–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Colts were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:21 left): D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass, worth 26 points of win probability to the Colts. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:15 left): Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards.
Final (OT)
 Atlanta Falcons | 25 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Colts about even · −16 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Colts win 8.
- 1 ATL 44 IND 31
- 2 ATL 31 IND 27
- 3 ATL 17 IND 20
- 4 ATL 21 IND 27
- 5 ATL 17 IND 26
- 6 ATL 24 IND 36
- 7 ATL 35 IND 51
- 8 ATL 12 IND 33
- 9 ATL 17 IND 44
- 10 ATL 9 IND 45
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 16% of them, Colts 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Colts by 17+ | 44.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 53 yds missed · 62% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Falcons 3 for 35 yards, Colts 7 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 20 yards | +4% ATL +1.9 pts |
| Q1 0:26 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:03 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 6 yards | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:25 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:25 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Taunting on the Falcons (Jessie Bates III), 15 yards | +6% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q4 10:20 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:15 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards | +33% IND +1.2 pts |
| OT 9:10 | Illegal Contact on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 5 yards | +16% ATL +1.8 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 0:52 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +17% ATL | IND: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 1:44 | The Falcons’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: End of game |
| 3 | Q4 1:17 | The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +15% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 0:29 | M. Badgley made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +12% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:21 | The game turned hereD. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 162 catchable balls before this | +26% IND | ATL: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 0:15 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 679 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 | +33% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 7 | OT 9:10 | Illegal Contact on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +16% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 8 | OT 8:19 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% IND | ATL: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Leonard Floyd (ATL DE), out · 0.6 pts
- Matthew Bergeron (ATL OL), out · 0.5 pts
- Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 16% · Colts 84%
- Final margin
- Colts by 6
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 16% · Colts 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Falcons · 
Colts
More from Week 10 2025
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 10–7 · replay 45% for the winner
- Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 30–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 36–29 · replay 94% for the winner
- Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 17–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 24–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 44–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 42–26 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers PHI 10–7 · replay 48% for the winner