luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Falcons vs Colts, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Falcons 31–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.5 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Colts were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass, worth 39 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Atlanta Falcons 25
Indianapolis Colts 31

November 9, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −6.5

Luck index +15 Colts about even · −15 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 50 IND 34
  2. 2 ATL 25 IND 21
  3. 3 ATL 22 IND 24
  4. 4 ATL 27 IND 33
  5. 5 ATL 30 IND 39
  6. 6 ATL 20 IND 32
  7. 7 ATL 20 IND 37
  8. 8 ATL 23 IND 44
  9. 9 ATL 9 IND 35
  10. 10 ATL 17 IND 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 15% of them, Colts 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.7%
Falcons by 9–164.3%
Falcons by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Colts by 1–818.6%
Colts by 9–1620.3%
Colts by 17+44.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 53 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:24 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% IND ATL: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:28 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% ATL IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 0:52 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +17% ATL IND: Field goal
4 Q4 1:17 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +17% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q4 0:21 D. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 162 catchable balls before this +39% IND ATL: End of game
6 Q4 0:15 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 679 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +33% IND IND: Touchdown
7 QOT 9:10 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +17% ATL ATL: Punt
8 QOT 8:19 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% IND ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Leonard Floyd (ATL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matthew Bergeron (ATL OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 14% · Colts 86%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
1.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 15% · Colts 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Falcons · Colts

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