luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Giants at Bears, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Giants 24–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: drops alone were worth 5.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): W. Robinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

New York Giants 20
Chicago Bears 24

November 9, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +29 Bears lucky · −29 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Bears win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 31 CHI 14
  2. 2 NYG 23 CHI 14
  3. 3 NYG 29 CHI 26
  4. 4 NYG 24 CHI 27
  5. 5 NYG 27 CHI 31
  6. 6 NYG 20 CHI 27
  7. 7 NYG 23 CHI 34
  8. 8 NYG 20 CHI 35
  9. 9 NYG 17 CHI 37
  10. 10 NYG 7 CHI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 29% of them, Bears 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+3.5%
Giants by 9–168.1%
Giants by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation3.7%
Bears by 1–824.4%
Bears by 9–1620.2%
Bears by 17+24.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 19 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:59 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Noah Sewell), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 794 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 5:32 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% CHI NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 2:13 The Bears converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 0:57 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 2:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2045 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q4 3:06 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% CHI NYG: Punt
7 Q4 0:46 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedW. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 246 catchable balls before this +15% CHI NYG: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:43 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 28% · Bears 72%

Final margin
Bears by 4
Luck in points
2.1 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 29% · Bears 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Giants · Bears

More from Week 10 2025