luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Bills at Dolphins, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bills 30–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.4 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Bills were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:19 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Buffalo Bills 13
Miami Dolphins 30

November 9, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bills −8.5

Luck index +45 Dolphins lucky · −45 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 30 MIA 9
  2. 2 BUF 17 MIA 3
  3. 3 BUF 23 MIA 16
  4. 4 BUF 19 MIA 16
  5. 5 BUF 24 MIA 26
  6. 6 BUF 30 MIA 35
  7. 7 BUF 30 MIA 37
  8. 8 BUF 17 MIA 30
  9. 9 BUF 20 MIA 36
  10. 10 BUF 0 MIA 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 45% of them, Dolphins 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+10.8%
Bills by 9–1613.0%
Bills by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation4.9%
Dolphins by 1–821.6%
Dolphins by 9–1615.7%
Dolphins by 17+13.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 4.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 False Start on the Dolphins (Alec Ingold), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2940 snaps before, position avg 1 per 450 +3% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Cole Bishop), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:22 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% MIA BUF: Punt
4 Q2 9:13 The Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1884 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +3% BUF BUF: Punt
5 Q3 12:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q3 6:05 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% MIA BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsIllegal Blindside Block on the Bills (Javon Solomon), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 674 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +3% BUF MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:19 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIA BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (MIA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Julian Hill (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (MIA S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (BUF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (BUF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Sanders (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 19% · Dolphins 81%

Final margin
Dolphins by 17
Luck in points
12.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 45% · Dolphins 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Bills · Dolphins

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