luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Bills at Dolphins, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bills 30–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 74% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 13
Miami Dolphins 30

November 9, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bills −8.5

Luck index +42 Dolphins lucky · −42 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 34 MIA 13
  2. 2 BUF 31 MIA 19
  3. 3 BUF 16 MIA 10
  4. 4 BUF 23 MIA 21
  5. 5 BUF 7 MIA 9
  6. 6 BUF 21 MIA 26
  7. 7 BUF 14 MIA 22
  8. 8 BUF 7 MIA 20
  9. 9 BUF 21 MIA 38
  10. 10 BUF 28 MIA 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 42% of them, Dolphins 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.3%
Bills by 9–1612.8%
Bills by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation3.2%
Dolphins by 1–824.5%
Dolphins by 9–1616.4%
Dolphins by 17+15.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 17, without the luck Dolphins by 6.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 6 for 67 yards, Dolphins 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on the Dolphins (Alec Ingold), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Cole Bishop), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.5 pts
Q2 9:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +2.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Jackson Hawes), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 14:18 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Bradley Chubb), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 13:56 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 12:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +2.5 pts
Q4 9:08 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills (Javon Solomon), 12 yards +3% MIA +1.1 pts
Q4 4:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +1% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 4:00 Taunting on the Dolphins (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards 0% BUF +1.1 pts
Q4 3:36 Illegal Formation on the Bills (Jackson Hawes), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 False Start on the Dolphins (Alec Ingold), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2940 snaps before, position avg 1 per 450 +3% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Cole Bishop), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:22 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +3% MIA BUF: Punt
4 Q2 9:13 The Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Benito Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1884 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +3% BUF BUF: Punt
5 Q2 3:08 R. Patterson made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 16 of 22 from 45+ before +2% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q2 0:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% BUF MIA: Punt
7 Q3 12:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Punt
8 Q4 7:19 The Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% MIA BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (MIA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Julian Hill (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (MIA S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (BUF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (BUF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Sanders (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 6% · Dolphins 94%

Final margin
Dolphins by 17
Luck in points
10.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 42% · Dolphins 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Bills · Dolphins

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