luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Saints at Panthers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 17–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:31 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 8, worth 22 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Carolina Panthers 7

November 9, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −5.5

Luck index +31 Saints lucky · −31 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 NO 34 CAR 9
  2. 2 NO 26 CAR 9
  3. 3 NO 28 CAR 14
  4. 4 NO 26 CAR 16
  5. 5 NO 17 CAR 10
  6. 6 NO 24 CAR 19
  7. 7 NO 13 CAR 10
  8. 8 NO 21 CAR 23
  9. 9 NO 6 CAR 13
  10. 10 NO 10 CAR 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 69% of them, Panthers 31%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+15.4%
Saints by 9–1621.8%
Saints by 1–830.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Panthers by 1–819.2%
Panthers by 9–167.3%
Panthers by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 15.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 48 yds blocked · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:31 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Justin Reid), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 7455 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +19% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:43 The Saints converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 9:31 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +22% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedT. McMillan dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +10% NO CAR: Punt
5 Q3 6:36 The Saints fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50R. Fitzgerald had a 48-yard field goal blockedKicks · 72% expected for him, 6 of 7 from 45+ before +15% CAR NO: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 4:34 The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NO CAR: Turnover
7 Q4 13:42 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% CAR NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:29 The Saints converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Taliese Fuaga (NO T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 97% · Panthers 3%

Final margin
Saints by 10
Luck in points
5.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 69% · Panthers 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Saints · Panthers

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