Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025
Saints at Panthers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Panthers 17–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:31 left): Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Justin Reid), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 17 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Saints about even · −18 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 8, Panthers win 2.
- 1 NO 27 CAR 3
- 2 NO 22 CAR 3
- 3 NO 22 CAR 7
- 4 NO 19 CAR 7
- 5 NO 23 CAR 13
- 6 NO 28 CAR 21
- 7 NO 19 CAR 14
- 8 NO 17 CAR 14
- 9 NO 14 CAR 17
- 10 NO 3 CAR 13
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.03 | better by 0.11 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.22 | +0.16 | better by 0.38 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.22 | +0.08 | worse by 0.30 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.16 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 82% of them, Panthers 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 26.4% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 23.2% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 31.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 48 yds blocked · 71% expected
Penalties: Saints 6 for 60 yards, Panthers 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:18 | Defensive Offside on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Justin Reid), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +19% CAR +5.7 pts |
| Q2 4:09 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jaylan Ford), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | False Start on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO 0.0 pts |
| Q3 14:16 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CAR +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Demario Davis), 15 yards | +3% CAR +2.2 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Justin Reid), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 7455 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 | +19% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 9:31 | The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:55 | T. McMillan dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 46 catchable balls before this | +7% NO | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:18 | The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% NO | NO: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 6:36 | The Saints fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50R. Fitzgerald had a 48-yard field goal blockedKicks · 71% expected for him, 6 of 7 from 45+ before | +15% CAR | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 4:34 | The Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% NO | CAR: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 13:42 | The Saints were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% CAR | NO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:29 | The Saints converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Taliese Fuaga (NO T), out · 0.8 pts
- Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 92% · Panthers 8%
- Final margin
- Saints by 10
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 9.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 82% · Panthers 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Saints · 
Panthers
More from Week 10 2025
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 10–7 · replay 45% for the winner
- Falcons vs Colts IND 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 30–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 36–29 · replay 94% for the winner
- Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 · replay 71% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 24–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 44–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 42–26 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers PHI 10–7 · replay 48% for the winner