luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Rams at 49ers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the 49ers 42–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 42
San Francisco 49ers 26

November 9, 2025 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +10 Rams about even · −10 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, 49ers win 1.

  1. 1 LA 45 SF 13
  2. 2 LA 41 SF 17
  3. 3 LA 36 SF 16
  4. 4 LA 40 SF 24
  5. 5 LA 33 SF 20
  6. 6 LA 27 SF 16
  7. 7 LA 34 SF 27
  8. 8 LA 31 SF 27
  9. 9 LA 36 SF 34
  10. 10 LA 27 SF 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 90% of them, 49ers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+48.0%
Rams by 9–1623.2%
Rams by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
49ers by 1–86.4%
49ers by 9–161.9%
49ers by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:07 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% LA SF: Punt
2 Q1 2:29 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:45 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% LA SF: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:46 The 49ers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:00 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% LA LA: Punt
6 Q3 8:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Tatum Bethune), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 557 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +4% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:20 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:29 The 49ers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +4% LA SF: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marques Sigle (SF S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alfred Collins (SF DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Karty (LA K), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 97% · 49ers 3%

Final margin
Rams by 16
Luck in points
10.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 90% · 49ers 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Rams · 49ers

More from Week 10 2025