luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 44–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:32 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 24 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 22
Seattle Seahawks 44

November 9, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −7

Luck index +25 Seahawks lucky · −25 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, Seahawks win 7.

  1. 1 ARI 37 SEA 19
  2. 2 ARI 37 SEA 29
  3. 3 ARI 19 SEA 16
  4. 4 ARI 29 SEA 31
  5. 5 ARI 16 SEA 21
  6. 6 ARI 14 SEA 23
  7. 7 ARI 22 SEA 34
  8. 8 ARI 11 SEA 27
  9. 9 ARI 21 SEA 42
  10. 10 ARI 14 SEA 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 25% of them, Seahawks 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+3.7%
Cardinals by 9–166.7%
Cardinals by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation4.1%
Seahawks by 1–825.1%
Seahawks by 9–1620.2%
Seahawks by 17+26.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 22, without the luck Seahawks by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Myers, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 37 yards, Seahawks 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:55 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Kitan Crawford), 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 2:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.5 pts
Q2 14:04 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Derick Hall), 5 yards 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q2 9:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 2 yards 0% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 8:58 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 3:27 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% SEA +1.9 pts
Q3 13:03 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Nick Kallerup), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ARI +1.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:40 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +2% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:55 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Kitan Crawford), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 176 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +2% SEA SEA: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 9:32 The Cardinals fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +24% SEA ARI: Punt
5 Q1 6:33 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +2% SEA ARI: Punt
6 Q1 2:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 6824 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +2% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:15 The Cardinals fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +9% SEA ARI: Punt
8 Q3 6:47 The Seahawks fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% ARI SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Jobe (SEA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ernest Jones (SEA LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 2.5 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 3% · Seahawks 97%

Final margin
Seahawks by 22
Luck in points
11.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 25% · Seahawks 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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