luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · November 6, 2025–November 10

Week 10 2025: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 10 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Broncos won 10–7 and take 45% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 10 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 30–13 vs Bills 26% 58% Coin flip
Saints 17–7 @ Panthers 34% 82% Deserved
Patriots 28–23 @ Buccaneers 43% 71% Deserved
Jets 27–20 vs Browns 46% 48% Coin flip
Texans 36–29 vs Jaguars 46% 94% Deserved
Eagles 10–7 @ Packers 46% 48% Coin flip

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 10–7 vs Raiders 45% +55
2 Eagles W 10–7 @ Packers 48% +52
3 Jets W 27–20 vs Browns 48% +52
4 Dolphins W 30–13 vs Bills 58% +42
5 Patriots W 28–23 @ Buccaneers 71% +29
6 Seahawks W 44–22 vs Cardinals 75% +25
7 Chargers W 25–10 vs Steelers 77% +23
8 Saints W 17–7 @ Panthers 82% +18
9 Colts W 31–25 vs Falcons 84% +16
10 Ravens W 27–19 @ Vikings 85% +15
11 Lions W 44–22 @ Commanders 85% +15
12 Bears W 24–20 vs Giants 85% +15
13 Rams W 42–26 @ 49ers 90% +10
14 Texans W 36–29 vs Jaguars 94% +6
15 Jaguars L 29–36 @ Texans 6% −6
16 49ers L 26–42 vs Rams 10% −10
17 Giants L 20–24 @ Bears 15% −15
18 Commanders L 22–44 vs Lions 15% −15
19 Vikings L 19–27 vs Ravens 15% −15
20 Falcons L 25–31 @ Colts 16% −16
21 Panthers L 7–17 vs Saints 18% −18
22 Steelers L 10–25 @ Chargers 23% −23
23 Cardinals L 22–44 @ Seahawks 25% −25
24 Buccaneers L 23–28 vs Patriots 29% −29
25 Bills L 13–30 @ Dolphins 42% −42
26 Browns L 20–27 @ Jets 52% −52
27 Packers L 7–10 vs Eagles 52% −52
28 Raiders L 7–10 @ Broncos 55% −55