luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · November 13, 2025–November 17

Week 11 2025: who deserved to win

1 of 15 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Lions 16–9 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 11 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 30–27 @ Falcons 37% 78% Deserved
Broncos 22–19 vs Chiefs 40% 44% Coin flip
Bears 19–17 @ Vikings 41% 89% Deserved
Jaguars 35–6 vs Chargers 41% 95% Deserved

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 16–9 vs Lions 19% +81
2 Broncos W 22–19 vs Chiefs 44% +56
3 Dolphins W 16–13 vs Commanders 57% +43
4 Bills W 44–32 vs Buccaneers 63% +37
5 Rams W 21–19 vs Seahawks 66% +34
6 49ers W 41–22 @ Cardinals 76% +24
7 Panthers W 30–27 @ Falcons 78% +22
8 Texans W 16–13 @ Titans 84% +16
9 Steelers W 34–12 vs Bengals 87% +13
10 Bears W 19–17 @ Vikings 89% +11
11 Packers W 27–20 @ Giants 90% +10
12 Cowboys W 33–16 @ Raiders 94% +6
13 Patriots W 27–14 vs Jets 94% +6
14 Jaguars W 35–6 vs Chargers 95% +5
15 Ravens W 23–16 @ Browns 99% +1
16 Browns L 16–23 vs Ravens 1% −1
17 Chargers L 6–35 @ Jaguars 5% −5
18 Jets L 14–27 @ Patriots 6% −6
19 Raiders L 16–33 vs Cowboys 6% −6
20 Giants L 20–27 vs Packers 10% −10
21 Vikings L 17–19 vs Bears 11% −11
22 Bengals L 12–34 @ Steelers 13% −13
23 Titans L 13–16 vs Texans 16% −16
24 Falcons L 27–30 vs Panthers 22% −22
25 Cardinals L 22–41 vs 49ers 24% −24
26 Seahawks L 19–21 @ Rams 34% −34
27 Buccaneers L 32–44 @ Bills 37% −37
28 Commanders L 13–16 @ Dolphins 43% −43
29 Chiefs L 19–22 @ Broncos 56% −56
30 Lions L 9–16 @ Eagles 81% −81