Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025
49ers at Cardinals, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Cardinals 41–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:56 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 41 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 49ers about even · −24 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Cardinals win 2.
- 1 SF 38 ARI 7
- 2 SF 31 ARI 7
- 3 SF 29 ARI 10
- 4 SF 39 ARI 24
- 5 SF 31 ARI 20
- 6 SF 27 ARI 19
- 7 SF 32 ARI 27
- 8 SF 26 ARI 24
- 9 SF 27 ARI 30
- 10 SF 16 ARI 27
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 76% of them, Cardinals 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 30.6% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Ryland, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
- C. Ryland, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- E. Pineiro, 48 yds made · 82% expected
- E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 85% expected
- E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: 49ers 1 for 15 yards, Cardinals 17 for 130 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:30 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:01 | False Start on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:49 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 5 yards | +2% SF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Renardo Green), 15 yards | +4% ARI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 15 yards | +4% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SF +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | Illegal Formation on the Cardinals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:43 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 6 yards | +2% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | Encroachment on the Cardinals (PJ Mustipher), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards | +1% SF +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Calais Campbell), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ARI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:44 | Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% SF +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:56 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yards, wiping out the play | +14% SF +4.7 pts |
| Q3 7:20 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SF +2.2 pts |
| Q3 5:06 | Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +1.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:59 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards | 0% SF +0.9 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:19 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:00 | C. Ryland missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 16 of 27 from 45+ before | +9% SF | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 10:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Renardo Green), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1283 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +4% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 10:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +4% SF | SF: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:04 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +4% SF | SF: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:36 | M. Carter dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 93 catchable balls before this | +3% SF | ARI: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 0:26 | The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +4% SF | ARI: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 12:56 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 24 flags in 2799 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +14% SF | SF: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 3.0 pts
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out · 0.6 pts
- Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Baron Browning (ARI LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Trey Benson (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 94% · Cardinals 6%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 19
- Luck in points
- 13.3 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 5.7
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 76% · Cardinals 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
49ers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 11 2025
- Jets at Patriots NE 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 · replay 57% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 30–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Packers at Giants GB 27–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 44–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 21–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 23–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 22–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles PHI 16–9 · replay 19% for the winner
- Cowboys at Raiders DAL 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner