luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

49ers at Cardinals, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 41–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:56 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 41
Arizona Cardinals 22

November 16, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +26 49ers lucky · −26 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 SF 40 ARI 10
  2. 2 SF 55 ARI 34
  3. 3 SF 39 ARI 24
  4. 4 SF 39 ARI 27
  5. 5 SF 26 ARI 17
  6. 6 SF 26 ARI 20
  7. 7 SF 36 ARI 34
  8. 8 SF 19 ARI 22
  9. 9 SF 17 ARI 26
  10. 10 SF 20 ARI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 74% of them, Cardinals 26%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+26.6%
49ers by 9–1620.8%
49ers by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation3.1%
Cardinals by 1–813.9%
Cardinals by 9–167.5%
Cardinals by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 58 yds missed · 59% expected
  • C. Ryland, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 48 yds made · 83% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:21 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:00 C. Ryland missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 16 of 27 from 45+ before +9% SF ARI: Field goal
4 Q2 10:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +4% SF SF: Punt
5 Q2 9:04 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +4% SF SF: Punt
6 Q2 0:36 M. Carter dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 93 catchable balls before this +5% SF ARI: Turnover
7 Q2 0:26 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF ARI: Punt
8 Q3 12:56 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 24 flags in 2799 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +14% SF SF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 3.0 pts
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baron Browning (ARI LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Trey Benson (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Connor Colby (SF OL), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 67% · Cardinals 33%

Final margin
49ers by 19
Luck in points
19.7 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 74% · Cardinals 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 49ers · Cardinals

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