luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Lions at Eagles, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles stole one. They beat the Lions 16–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.5 points to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:18 left): the Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Detroit Lions 9
Philadelphia Eagles 16

November 16, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +88 Eagles very lucky · −88 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 DET 34 PHI 3
  2. 2 DET 34 PHI 10
  3. 3 DET 24 PHI 3
  4. 4 DET 40 PHI 23
  5. 5 DET 27 PHI 13
  6. 6 DET 30 PHI 19
  7. 7 DET 26 PHI 17
  8. 8 DET 19 PHI 13
  9. 9 DET 37 PHI 34
  10. 10 DET 13 PHI 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

51 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Lions offenseEPA per play gained −0.35 +0.20 worse by 0.55
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.08 better by 0.22
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.13 worse by 0.28
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.35 +0.04 better by 0.39

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 88% of them, Eagles 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+48.6%
Lions by 9–1621.7%
Lions by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Eagles by 1–87.5%
Eagles by 9–162.5%
Eagles by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 0.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Bates, 54 yds made · 59% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:18 The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% PHI DET: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedD. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 357 catchable balls before this +8% DET PHI: Punt
3 Q2 13:07 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% PHI DET: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 11:22 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% PHI DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:01 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:19 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedJ. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 141 catchable balls before this +7% PHI DET: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 5:14 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% PHI DET: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 2:48 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% DET DET: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.7 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 25% · Eagles 75%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
6.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 88% · Eagles 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Lions · Eagles

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