luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Buccaneers at Bills, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Buccaneers 44–32 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:05 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32
Buffalo Bills 44

November 16, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +34 Bills lucky · −34 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 TB 47 BUF 27
  2. 2 TB 27 BUF 17
  3. 3 TB 34 BUF 31
  4. 4 TB 19 BUF 21
  5. 5 TB 21 BUF 27
  6. 6 TB 17 BUF 27
  7. 7 TB 24 BUF 37
  8. 8 TB 16 BUF 31
  9. 9 TB 21 BUF 41
  10. 10 TB 34 BUF 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 34% of them, Bills 66%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.3%
Buccaneers by 9–169.5%
Buccaneers by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation2.8%
Bills by 1–823.1%
Bills by 9–1618.9%
Bills by 17+21.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:01 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:30 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:30 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% TB BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:45 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +20% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:01 C. McLaughlin made 24-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% BUF TB: Punt
6 Q3 4:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +26% BUF TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:45 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:32 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedS. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 101 catchable balls before this +10% BUF TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (BUF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 10% · Bills 90%

Final margin
Bills by 12
Luck in points
5.4 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 34% · Bills 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Buccaneers · Bills

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