luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Seahawks at Rams, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 21–19, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): J. Myers missed a 61-yard field goal, worth 52 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 19
Los Angeles Rams 21

November 16, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +34 Rams lucky · −34 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 38 LA 17
  2. 2 SEA 23 LA 15
  3. 3 SEA 23 LA 20
  4. 4 SEA 20 LA 22
  5. 5 SEA 24 LA 29
  6. 6 SEA 19 LA 27
  7. 7 SEA 27 LA 38
  8. 8 SEA 26 LA 41
  9. 9 SEA 18 LA 37
  10. 10 SEA 19 LA 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 34% of them, Rams 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+6.4%
Seahawks by 9–169.2%
Seahawks by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation1.9%
Rams by 1–826.3%
Rams by 9–1618.9%
Rams by 17+19.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Rams by 2, without the luck Rams by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 57 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 61 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 47 yards, Rams 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yards +5% LA +1.8 pts
Q1 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SEA +2.6 pts
Q2 12:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 5 yards +1% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 11:00 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Josaiah Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 9:04 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Seahawks (Jason Myers), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LA 0.0 pts
Q2 7:56 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Derion Kendrick), 7 yards +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q3 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Nick Kallerup), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% LA +2.9 pts
Q3 2:53 False Start on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 1:49 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 1:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +4% LA +0.9 pts
Q4 14:15 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks (Chazz Surratt), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 13 yards +9% SEA +0.3 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:12 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% SEA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:41 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2706 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q3 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Nick Kallerup), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 50 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +12% LA LA: Punt
5 Q3 5:50 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q4 1:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1109 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:01 J. Myers missed a 61-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 54 of 73 from 45+ before +52% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joshua Karty (LA K), out · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 8% · Rams 92%

Final margin
Rams by 2
Luck in points
5.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 34% · Rams 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Seahawks · Rams

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