luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Seahawks at Rams, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 21–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.0 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): J. Myers missed 61-yard field goal, worth 54 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 19
Los Angeles Rams 21

November 16, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +52 Rams lucky · −52 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Rams win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 41 LA 16
  2. 2 SEA 40 LA 24
  3. 3 SEA 21 LA 10
  4. 4 SEA 18 LA 12
  5. 5 SEA 24 LA 21
  6. 6 SEA 26 LA 28
  7. 7 SEA 24 LA 29
  8. 8 SEA 21 LA 30
  9. 9 SEA 24 LA 38
  10. 10 SEA 20 LA 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 52% of them, Rams 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+12.7%
Seahawks by 9–1614.5%
Seahawks by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.1%
Rams by 1–821.3%
Rams by 9–1614.3%
Rams by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 57 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Myers, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:12 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% SEA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:41 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:41 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +14% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Nick Kallerup), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 50 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +12% LA LA: Punt
5 Q3 5:50 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q4 10:55 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% LA SEA: Punt
7 Q4 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1109 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:01 J. Myers missed 61-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 54 of 73 from 45+ before +54% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joshua Karty (LA K), out · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 21% · Rams 79%

Final margin
Rams by 2
Luck in points
3.0 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 52% · Rams 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Seahawks · Rams

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