Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025
Packers at Giants, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Giants 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: drops alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:04 left): Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josh Whyle), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 27 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 9, Giants win 1.
- 1 GB 38 NYG 10
- 2 GB 23 NYG 0
- 3 GB 21 NYG 3
- 4 GB 29 NYG 14
- 5 GB 19 NYG 7
- 6 GB 34 NYG 24
- 7 GB 20 NYG 13
- 8 GB 24 NYG 19
- 9 GB 20 NYG 17
- 10 GB 9 NYG 14
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 90% of them, Giants 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 41.9% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 27.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Giants by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 75% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Packers 5 for 48 yards, Giants 6 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:28 | Encroachment on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:10 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +3% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:37 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:21 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 14 yards | +8% NYG +2.1 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Chop Block on the Giants, 15 yards | +6% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Dane Belton), 35 yards | +9% GB +3.3 pts |
| Q4 10:16 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +16% GB +2.2 pts |
| Q4 8:21 | Face Mask on the Packers (Colby Wooden), 4 yards | +2% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:04 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josh Whyle), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +19% NYG +2.5 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:36 | The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:32 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Dane Belton), 35 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2563 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 2:02 | The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +13% GB | NYG: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:16 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +16% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:02 | The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +12% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:56 | The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +16% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:04 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josh Whyle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 687 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +19% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:40 | The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +9% GB | NYG: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out, replaced by j.winston · 1.7 pts
- Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.4 pts
- Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Brandon McManus (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 95% · Giants 5%
- Final margin
- Packers by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 7.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 90% · Giants 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Packers · 
Giants
More from Week 11 2025
- Jets at Patriots NE 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 · replay 57% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 30–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 44–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 21–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 41–22 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 23–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 22–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles PHI 16–9 · replay 19% for the winner
- Cowboys at Raiders DAL 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner