luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Packers at Giants, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Giants 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: drops alone were worth 5.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:40 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 30 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 27
New York Giants 20

November 16, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Packers −7.5

Luck index +17 Packers about even · −17 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Giants win 2.

  1. 1 GB 35 NYG 7
  2. 2 GB 27 NYG 6
  3. 3 GB 20 NYG 3
  4. 4 GB 27 NYG 14
  5. 5 GB 27 NYG 17
  6. 6 GB 24 NYG 17
  7. 7 GB 33 NYG 28
  8. 8 GB 23 NYG 20
  9. 9 GB 14 NYG 17
  10. 10 GB 20 NYG 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 83% of them, Giants 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+29.6%
Packers by 9–1623.3%
Packers by 1–828.4%
Level after regulation2.2%
Giants by 1–810.0%
Giants by 9–165.1%
Giants by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:45 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedW. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 249 catchable balls before this +11% GB NYG: Punt
2 Q3 2:02 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +16% GB NYG: Touchdown
3 Q3 0:36 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedC. Watson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 128 catchable balls before this +9% NYG GB: Punt
4 Q4 10:16 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:02 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:56 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +21% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josh Whyle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 687 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +20% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 Q4 0:40 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +30% GB NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out, replaced by j.winston · 1.7 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon McManus (GB K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 87% · Giants 13%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
0.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 83% · Giants 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Packers · Giants

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