Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025
Panthers at Falcons, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Falcons 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.
An off day for the Falcons: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): Z. Gonzalez made a 45-yard field goal, worth 18 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final (OT)
 Carolina Panthers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Panthers about even · −22 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 8, Falcons win 2.
- 1 CAR 48 ATL 20
- 2 CAR 27 ATL 6
- 3 CAR 33 ATL 17
- 4 CAR 37 ATL 24
- 5 CAR 33 ATL 23
- 6 CAR 24 ATL 17
- 7 CAR 20 ATL 16
- 8 CAR 15 ATL 13
- 9 CAR 28 ATL 33
- 10 CAR 13 ATL 28
Your call
Did the Panthers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Falcons
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.07 | better by 0.06 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.16 | better by 0.04 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.11 | better by 0.01 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.12 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 78% of them, Falcons 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 33.2% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Fitzgerald, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds made · 70% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 82% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Panthers 8 for 49 yards, Falcons 6 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:55 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +3% CAR +1.4 pts |
| Q1 5:57 | Defensive Offside on the Falcons (James Pearce), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Bobby Brown), 5 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 10 yards | +5% CAR +1.7 pts |
| Q2 7:52 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +3% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | False Start on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:16 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Tre'von Moehrig), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 1 yard | 0% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:24 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Jalen Coker), 10 yards | +7% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 5:56 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 9 yards | +4% CAR +1.7 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Israel Mukuamu), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:05 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 8 yards | +5% ATL +1.7 pts |
| OT 9:28 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +14% CAR +1.7 pts |
Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 8:15 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +11% ATL | CAR: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 3:05 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +16% ATL | CAR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:54 | The Panthers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +10% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 1:15 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +15% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:26 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +15% CAR | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:21 | Z. Gonzalez made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 29 of 40 from 45+ before | +18% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 7 | OT 9:28 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 9:06 | K. Pitts dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 196 catchable balls before this | +10% CAR | ATL: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Leonard Floyd (ATL DE), out · 0.6 pts
- Matthew Bergeron (ATL OL), out · 0.5 pts
- Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts
- Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 88% · Falcons 12%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 78% · Falcons 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Panthers · 
Falcons
More from Week 11 2025
- Jets at Patriots NE 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders vs Dolphins MIA 16–13 · replay 57% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Packers at Giants GB 27–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 16–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bills BUF 44–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 21–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 41–22 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 23–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 22–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles PHI 16–9 · replay 19% for the winner
- Cowboys at Raiders DAL 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner