luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Chargers at Jaguars, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Chargers 35–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Chargers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:56 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 35

November 16, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +6 Jaguars about even · −6 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 13 JAX 9
  2. 2 LAC 14 JAX 16
  3. 3 LAC 31 JAX 35
  4. 4 LAC 14 JAX 23
  5. 5 LAC 9 JAX 20
  6. 6 LAC 14 JAX 28
  7. 7 LAC 6 JAX 23
  8. 8 LAC 6 JAX 26
  9. 9 LAC 20 JAX 44
  10. 10 LAC 3 JAX 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chargers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

42 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.29 +0.11 worse by 0.40
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.05 worse by 0.18
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.08 better by 0.16
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.29 +0.14 better by 0.43

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 6% of them, Jaguars 94%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.2%
Chargers by 9–161.1%
Chargers by 1–84.1%
Level after regulation1.5%
Jaguars by 1–816.0%
Jaguars by 9–1623.8%
Jaguars by 17+53.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 29. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 19.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:17 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% LAC JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:39 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% JAX LAC: Field goal
3 Q1 0:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1403 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:54 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LAC JAX: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:56 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% JAX LAC: Field goal
6 Q2 6:32 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:45 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% LAC LAC: Punt
8 Q3 11:32 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anton Harrison (JAX OL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (JAX DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby Hart (LAC T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 29
Luck in points
9.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 6% · Jaguars 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Chargers · Jaguars

More from Week 11 2025