2025 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2025: game by game
The Jaguars went 13–4 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck added 4.0: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Panthers | W 26–10 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 2 | @ Bengals | L 27–31 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 17–10 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 4 | @ 49ers | W 26–21 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 5 | vs Chiefs | W 31–28 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 6 | vs Seahawks | L 12–20 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 7 | vs Rams | L 7–35 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 9 | @ Raiders | W 30–29 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 10 | @ Texans | L 29–36 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 11 | vs Chargers | W 35–6 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | @ Cardinals | W 27–24 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 13 | @ Titans | W 25–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | W 36–19 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | W 48–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | @ Broncos | W 34–20 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 17 | @ Colts | W 23–17 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 18 | vs Titans | W 41–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | vs Bills | L 24–27 | 40% | −40 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.49 | +18.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.29 | +7.5 |
| Judgment calls | +0.27 | +2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.25 | +10.6 |
| Kicks | +0.21 | +16.4 |
| Drops | −0.88 | −22.1 |