luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Titans at Jaguars, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 41–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:20 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 32 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Tennessee Titans 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 41

January 4, 2026 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −12.5

Luck index +1 Jaguars about even · −1 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 24 JAX 28
  2. 2 TEN 12 JAX 19
  3. 3 TEN 13 JAX 23
  4. 4 TEN 10 JAX 23
  5. 5 TEN 7 JAX 22
  6. 6 TEN 10 JAX 28
  7. 7 TEN 13 JAX 34
  8. 8 TEN 10 JAX 34
  9. 9 TEN 7 JAX 34
  10. 10 TEN 0 JAX 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 1% of them, Jaguars 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.1%
Titans by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Jaguars by 1–85.7%
Jaguars by 9–1616.5%
Jaguars by 17+76.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 34. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 15.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 67 yds made · 50% expected
  • C. Little, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Slye, 52 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +15% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:12 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 30 flags in 5860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:15 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q1 2:28 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% TEN JAX: Punt
5 Q2 11:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 7 yardsJudgment calls · 30 flags in 5860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:24 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tony Pollard), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 4171 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +8% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 8:20 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +32% JAX TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Van Jefferson (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Gunnar Helm (TEN TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Harris (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalyn Armour-Davis (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 1% · Jaguars 99%

Final margin
Jaguars by 34
Luck in points
19.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 1% · Jaguars 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Titans · Jaguars

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