luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Chargers at Broncos, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Chargers 19–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.0 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:50 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 36 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 3
Denver Broncos 19

January 4, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −14.5

Luck index +10 Broncos about even · −10 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 23 DEN 16
  2. 2 LAC 10 DEN 12
  3. 3 LAC 23 DEN 28
  4. 4 LAC 14 DEN 22
  5. 5 LAC 6 DEN 16
  6. 6 LAC 13 DEN 26
  7. 7 LAC 3 DEN 19
  8. 8 LAC 14 DEN 33
  9. 9 LAC 6 DEN 27
  10. 10 LAC 3 DEN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 10% of them, Broncos 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.4%
Chargers by 9–161.8%
Chargers by 1–86.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Broncos by 1–817.8%
Broncos by 9–1623.8%
Broncos by 17+48.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:07 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q1 5:54 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% LAC DEN: Field goal
3 Q1 3:50 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +36% DEN LAC: Punt
4 Q2 12:55 The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +5% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:15 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LAC LAC: Field goal
6 Q3 1:35 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q4 11:49 W. Lutz made 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +5% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:38 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% DEN DEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Herbert (LAC QB), out, replaced by t.lance · 5.1 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC S), out · 0.7 pts
  • Bradley Bozeman (LAC C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (LAC LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 16
Luck in points
6.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 10% · Broncos 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Chargers · Broncos

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