luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Chargers at Broncos, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Chargers 19–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:50 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 21 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 3
Denver Broncos 19

January 4, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −14.5

Luck index +4 Broncos about even · −4 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 0, Broncos win 10.

  1. 1 LAC 13 DEN 15
  2. 2 LAC 10 DEN 16
  3. 3 LAC 15 DEN 23
  4. 4 LAC 13 DEN 23
  5. 5 LAC 12 DEN 25
  6. 6 LAC 2 DEN 16
  7. 7 LAC 17 DEN 34
  8. 8 LAC 3 DEN 23
  9. 9 LAC 5 DEN 30
  10. 10 LAC 7 DEN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 4% of them, Broncos 96%. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.1%
Chargers by 9–160.8%
Chargers by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Broncos by 1–810.3%
Broncos by 9–1622.1%
Broncos by 17+63.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 16, without the luck Broncos by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 5 for 25 yards, Broncos 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 5:05 Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 0:54 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:11 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q4 11:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 10:36 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:38 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% DEN +3.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:07 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q1 3:50 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +21% DEN LAC: Punt
3 Q2 12:55 The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q2 0:15 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 Q2 0:11 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% LAC LAC: Field goal
6 Q3 1:35 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q4 11:49 W. Lutz made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +4% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:38 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% DEN DEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Herbert (LAC QB), out, replaced by t.lance · 5.1 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC S), out · 0.7 pts
  • Bradley Bozeman (LAC C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tuli Tuipulotu (LAC LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 16
Luck in points
5.1 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 4% · Broncos 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Chargers · Broncos

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