luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Packers at Vikings, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 16–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:54 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 8 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 3
Minnesota Vikings 16

January 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −12.5

Luck index +14 Vikings about even · −14 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 GB 13 MIN 6
  2. 2 GB 7 MIN 9
  3. 3 GB 20 MIN 24
  4. 4 GB 9 MIN 16
  5. 5 GB 7 MIN 16
  6. 6 GB 14 MIN 26
  7. 7 GB 20 MIN 34
  8. 8 GB 3 MIN 20
  9. 9 GB 7 MIN 28
  10. 10 GB 7 MIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 14% of them, Vikings 86%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+0.8%
Packers by 9–162.8%
Packers by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation2.6%
Vikings by 1–818.9%
Vikings by 9–1623.2%
Vikings by 17+44.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Packers: the final margin was Vikings by 13, without the luck Vikings by 13. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 4 for 47 yards, Vikings 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 Taunting on the Vikings (J.J. McCarthy), 15 yards +3% GB +1.3 pts
Q1 2:51 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Warren Brinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.2 pts
Q1 0:37 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Taki Taimani), 5 yards +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q3 7:08 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 13:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jaylin Simpson), 32 yards 0% MIN +2.4 pts
Q4 12:53 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Arron Mosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:25 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% GB MIN: Punt
2 Q1 1:36 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% GB MIN: Punt
3 Q2 13:34 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +3% MIN MIN: Punt
4 Q2 12:44 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% GB MIN: Punt
5 Q2 9:58 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% MIN GB: Punt
6 Q2 4:34 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 3:10 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% GB MIN: Field goal
8 Q2 0:54 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Metellus (MIN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (GB S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • John FitzPatrick (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 14% · Vikings 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Packers · Vikings

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