luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Packers at Vikings, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 16–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:54 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 8 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 3
Minnesota Vikings 16

January 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −12.5

Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 GB 19 MIN 13
  2. 2 GB 17 MIN 20
  3. 3 GB 17 MIN 22
  4. 4 GB 14 MIN 21
  5. 5 GB 7 MIN 17
  6. 6 GB 6 MIN 20
  7. 7 GB 20 MIN 37
  8. 8 GB 14 MIN 34
  9. 9 GB 13 MIN 36
  10. 10 GB 3 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 13% of them, Vikings 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+0.8%
Packers by 9–163.7%
Packers by 1–88.7%
Level after regulation0.9%
Vikings by 1–824.2%
Vikings by 9–1621.4%
Vikings by 17+40.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 10.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:25 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% GB MIN: Punt
2 Q1 1:36 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% GB MIN: Punt
3 Q2 12:44 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% GB MIN: Punt
4 Q2 12:34 M. Golden dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +4% MIN GB: Punt
5 Q2 9:58 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% MIN GB: Punt
6 Q2 4:34 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 3:10 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% GB MIN: Field goal
8 Q2 0:54 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Metellus (MIN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (GB S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Tom (GB OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • John FitzPatrick (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 1% · Vikings 99%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
2.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 13% · Vikings 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Packers · Vikings

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