luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Saints at Falcons, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 19–17, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.3 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:24 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 29 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

New Orleans Saints 17
Atlanta Falcons 19

January 4, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4.5

Luck index +67 Falcons very lucky · −67 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 NO 27 ATL 3
  2. 2 NO 20 ATL 3
  3. 3 NO 26 ATL 13
  4. 4 NO 12 ATL 3
  5. 5 NO 19 ATL 12
  6. 6 NO 10 ATL 6
  7. 7 NO 16 ATL 14
  8. 8 NO 16 ATL 19
  9. 9 NO 7 ATL 16
  10. 10 NO 23 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 67% of them, Falcons 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+17.5%
Saints by 9–1620.8%
Saints by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation2.3%
Falcons by 1–818.8%
Falcons by 9–169.2%
Falcons by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Smyth, 56 yds missed · 66% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Smyth, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% NO ATL: Punt
2 Q1 10:35 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +12% ATL ATL: Turnover
3 Q1 3:31 Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:38 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:33 The Saints converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q3 4:06 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
7 Q3 2:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1415 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +18% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 3:24 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% ATL NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Dorlus (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devaughn Vele (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nathan Shepherd (NO DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devin Neal (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 80% · Falcons 20%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
10.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 67% · Falcons 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Saints · Falcons

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