Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026
Saints at Falcons, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Saints 19–17, but the replays lean toward the Saints: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Falcons.
The Falcons won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:25 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 17 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +71 Falcons very lucky · −71 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 7, Falcons win 3.
- 1 NO 31 ATL 6
- 2 NO 20 ATL 3
- 3 NO 23 ATL 9
- 4 NO 28 ATL 17
- 5 NO 20 ATL 13
- 6 NO 21 ATL 16
- 7 NO 16 ATL 14
- 8 NO 17 ATL 20
- 9 NO 16 ATL 23
- 10 NO 6 ATL 20
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Falcons won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.04 | worse by 0.05 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.11 | better by 0.26 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.12 | worse by 0.28 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.10 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 71% of them, Falcons 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 20.1% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 27.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Smyth, 56 yds missed · 68% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 40 yds made · 89% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- C. Smyth, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 38 yds made · 92% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 38 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Saints 6 for 40 yards, Falcons 5 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:02 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards | +3% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:18 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% NO +2.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 10:19 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | False Start on the Saints (Dante Pettis), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +5% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 22 yards | +7% NO +3.1 pts |
| Q2 0:08 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Falcons (Zane Gonzalez), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO 0.0 pts |
| Q3 8:50 | Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Jalon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +18% ATL +4.0 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:35 | The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +12% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 3:31 | Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams | +11% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:18 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% NO | NO: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 6:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 28 flags in 5921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +7% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 6:33 | The Saints converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:06 | The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +10% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 2:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1415 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +18% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 3:24 | The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +5% ATL | NO: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandon Dorlus (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts
- Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Devaughn Vele (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Nathan Shepherd (NO DT), out · 0.2 pts
- Devin Neal (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 83% · Falcons 17%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 2
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 71% · Falcons 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · 
Saints · 
Falcons
More from Week 18 2025
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 16–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 13–3 · replay 55% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CLE 20–18 · replay 2% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 34–17 · replay 33% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 16–3 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Texans HOU 38–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 19–16 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders LV 14–12 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 19–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 38–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 35–8 · replay 100% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles WAS 24–17 · replay 43% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers PIT 26–24 · replay 36% for the winner