luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Colts at Texans, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 38–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:35 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 27 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 30
Houston Texans 38

January 4, 2026 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −9.5

Luck index +45 Texans lucky · −45 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 IND 29 HOU 10
  2. 2 IND 38 HOU 27
  3. 3 IND 20 HOU 14
  4. 4 IND 18 HOU 16
  5. 5 IND 13 HOU 15
  6. 6 IND 16 HOU 20
  7. 7 IND 16 HOU 24
  8. 8 IND 14 HOU 26
  9. 9 IND 13 HOU 29
  10. 10 IND 7 HOU 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 44% of them, Texans 56%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+8.3%
Colts by 9–1613.9%
Colts by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation5.4%
Texans by 1–822.3%
Texans by 9–1616.3%
Texans by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 6.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. Grupe, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Grupe, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 10:45 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +21% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:22 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q3 5:32 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q3 1:52 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedDisqualification on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +19% HOU IND: Field goal
6 Q4 12:35 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +27% HOU IND: Field goal
7 Q4 0:17 K. Fairbairn made 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +20% HOU –
8 Q4 0:05 The Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +25% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Trent Brown (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Daniel Jones (IND QB), out (IR), replaced by r.leonard · 2.4 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Sauce Gardner (IND CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 11% · Texans 89%

Final margin
Texans by 8
Luck in points
1.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Colts 44% · Texans 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Colts · Texans

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