AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Colts have won 56.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 61.2. Luck cost them 4.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+0.4 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−2.3).
2026: 2–7 so far, replay wins 2.2 (−0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–7 | 2.2 | −0.2 | 1–4 | +0.87 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 9.6 | −1.6 | 3–7 | +0.30 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 8.7 | −0.7 | 8–5 | +0.36 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 6–3 | −0.49 | – |
| 2022 | 4–12–1 | 4.4 | +0.1 | 4–6–1 | −0.14 | – |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 9.8 | −0.8 | 2–5 | +1.28 | – |
| 2020 | 11–5 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 5–2 | −0.48 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 9.3 | −2.3 | 5–6 | +0.28 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.6 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| 2024 | −0.7 | −0.40 | +0.14 | −0.81 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.06 |
| 2023 | +0.3 | −0.73 | +0.47 | −0.15 | −0.24 | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| 2022 | +0.1 | +1.13 | −0.23 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.33 | +0.02 |
| 2021 | −0.8 | +0.12 | −0.28 | 0.00 | +0.64 | −0.02 | −0.07 |
| 2020 | +0.4 | +0.19 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.25 | +0.04 |
| 2019 | −2.3 | −0.44 | −1.53 | 0.00 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.10 |
| Since 2019 | −4.7 | +0.09 | −1.38 | −1.27 | +0.56 | −0.05 | +0.14 |
Are the Colts lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Colts have won 56.5 regular-season games from play worth 61.2: −4.7 wins of luck, the 7th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Colts had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from kicks (−1.4 wins) and drops (−1.3 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 33–34–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 35.7 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Colts’ luckiest season?
2020: 11–5 from play worth 10.6 wins, +0.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 7–9 from play worth 9.3 (−2.3).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Colts’ luckiest wins
Wins the Colts take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 5 | @ Broncos | W 12–9 | 3% | +97 |
| 2022 Week 3 | vs Chiefs | W 20–17 | 10% | +90 |
| 2019 Week 7 | vs Texans | W 30–23 | 12% | +88 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 34–27 | 14% | +86 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Texans | W 19–17 | 25% | +75 |
The Colts’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Colts would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 10 | vs Dolphins | L 12–16 | 92% | −92 |
| 2023 Week 7 | vs Browns | L 38–39 | 90% | −90 |
| 2024 Week 5 | @ Jaguars | L 34–37 | 86% | −86 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Texans | L 16–20 | 78% | −78 |
| 2019 Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 24–26 | 76% | −76 |
