AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Colts have won 56.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 61.4. Luck cost them 4.9 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+0.6 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−2.4).
2026: 0–2 so far, replay wins 0.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–2 | 0.6 | −0.6 | 0–1 | +7.45 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 9.8 | −1.8 | 3–7 | −0.56 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 8.9 | −0.9 | 8–5 | +0.58 | – |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 6–3 | +0.28 | – |
| 2022 | 4–12–1 | 4.3 | +0.2 | 4–6–1 | −0.75 | – |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 9.9 | −0.9 | 2–5 | +1.39 | – |
| 2020 | 11–5 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 5–2 | −1.59 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 9.4 | −2.4 | 5–6 | +1.52 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Colts take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 5 | @ Broncos | W 12–9 | 3% | +97 |
| 2022 Week 3 | vs Chiefs | W 20–17 | 5% | +95 |
| 2019 Week 7 | vs Texans | W 30–23 | 12% | +88 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 34–27 | 25% | +75 |
| 2020 Week 11 | vs Packers | W 34–31 | 30% | +70 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Colts would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 10 | vs Dolphins | L 12–16 | 92% | −92 |
| 2023 Week 7 | vs Browns | L 38–39 | 89% | −89 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 20–27 | 78% | −78 |
| 2019 Week 13 | vs Titans | L 17–31 | 76% | −76 |
| 2022 Week 18 | vs Texans | L 31–32 | 75% | −75 |
