Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Texans at Colts, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?
The Colts stole one. They beat the Texans 30–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.0 points to the Colts.
The Colts won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:34 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 14, worth 28 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Houston Texans | 23 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 Colts very lucky · −88 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 9, Colts win 1.
- 1 HOU 48 IND 14
- 2 HOU 43 IND 17
- 3 HOU 37 IND 16
- 4 HOU 41 IND 24
- 5 HOU 38 IND 24
- 6 HOU 44 IND 34
- 7 HOU 38 IND 30
- 8 HOU 42 IND 37
- 9 HOU 26 IND 24
- 10 HOU 34 IND 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Colts won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.14 | worse by 0.05 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.11 | worse by 0.19 |
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.16 | better by 0.13 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.14 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 88% of them, Colts 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 47.2% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Colts by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Colts by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 3.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 73% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 97% expected
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:42 | The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:10 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% HOU | IND: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 7:34 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +28% HOU | IND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:47 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +12% IND | HOU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:27 | K. Fairbairn made 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him | +6% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 6:45 | Defensive Holding on the Texans (Keion Crossen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 5:15 | The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:46 | The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% IND | IND: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
- Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 11% · Colts 89%
- Final margin
- Colts by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 3.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 88% · Colts 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · 
Texans · 
Colts
More from Week 7 2019
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 30–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cardinals at Giants ARI 27–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals JAX 27–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons LA 37–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 42–30 · replay 84% for the winner
- Raiders at Packers GB 42–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- 49ers at Washington SF 9–0 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans TEN 23–20 · replay 20% for the winner
- Ravens at Seahawks BAL 30–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Saints at Bears NO 36–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 37–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 33–0 · replay 97% for the winner