luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Titans, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans stole one. They beat the Chargers 23–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Titans.

The Titans won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): the Chargers fumbled and the Titans recovered, worth 26 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Tennessee Titans 23

October 20, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +80 Titans very lucky · −80 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 34 TEN 7
  2. 2 LAC 23 TEN 3
  3. 3 LAC 20 TEN 3
  4. 4 LAC 30 TEN 16
  5. 5 LAC 21 TEN 10
  6. 6 LAC 24 TEN 16
  7. 7 LAC 19 TEN 14
  8. 8 LAC 19 TEN 17
  9. 9 LAC 21 TEN 24
  10. 10 LAC 16 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Titans won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

40 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.15 worse by 0.02
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.14 worse by 0.14
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.04 better by 0.23
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.07 worse by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 80% of them, Titans 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+31.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.9%
Chargers by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Titans by 1–811.5%
Titans by 9–165.3%
Titans by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 2.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:18 The Titans converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 1:34 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q3 13:21 The Titans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 6:28 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q4 14:55 The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:16 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:39 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% LAC TEN: End of game
8 Q4 0:19 The Chargers fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +26% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sharif Finch (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Mebane (LAC NT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 20% · Titans 80%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
0.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 80% · Titans 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Chargers · Titans

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