luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Giants, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Giants 27–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Giants: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Giants were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:35 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 15, worth 19 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
New York Giants 21

October 20, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3.5

Luck index +13 Cardinals about even · −13 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 ARI 30 NYG 3
  2. 2 ARI 36 NYG 14
  3. 3 ARI 23 NYG 5
  4. 4 ARI 31 NYG 16
  5. 5 ARI 29 NYG 16
  6. 6 ARI 20 NYG 10
  7. 7 ARI 21 NYG 14
  8. 8 ARI 25 NYG 21
  9. 9 ARI 16 NYG 14
  10. 10 ARI 16 NYG 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

43 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.04 better by 0.04
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.15 better by 0.06
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.10 worse by 0.01
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.16 better by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 87% of them, Giants 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+40.8%
Cardinals by 9–1624.8%
Cardinals by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation1.2%
Giants by 1–88.6%
Giants by 9–162.8%
Giants by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 2.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • A. Rosas, 37 yds missed · 91% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:49 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% ARI NYG: Punt
2 Q2 9:59 Blocked punt by the GiantsSpecial teams +11% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 3:20 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% ARI ARI: End of half
4 Q2 2:09 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% NYG NYG: Punt
5 Q3 7:33 The Giants fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ARI NYG: Missed field goal
6 Q3 3:34 The Giants converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
7 Q4 2:35 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% ARI NYG: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:38 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 31% · Giants 69%

Final margin
Cardinals by 6
Luck in points
8.3 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 87% · Giants 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Cardinals · Giants

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