luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Seahawks, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Seahawks 30–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:12 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 58 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 30
Seattle Seahawks 16

October 20, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +36 Ravens lucky · −36 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 35 SEA 13
  2. 2 BAL 23 SEA 7
  3. 3 BAL 34 SEA 23
  4. 4 BAL 31 SEA 22
  5. 5 BAL 14 SEA 10
  6. 6 BAL 10 SEA 7
  7. 7 BAL 24 SEA 26
  8. 8 BAL 16 SEA 22
  9. 9 BAL 20 SEA 31
  10. 10 BAL 10 SEA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 64% of them, Seahawks 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+15.7%
Ravens by 9–1620.9%
Ravens by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Seahawks by 1–819.1%
Seahawks by 9–1610.3%
Seahawks by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 11.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:21 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +15% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:04 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 5:12 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +58% BAL SEA: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 12:52 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q3 1:24 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +19% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Luke Willson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 153 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q4 3:47 The Seahawks fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +10% BAL SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Fluker (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ezekiel Ansah (SEA DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (SEA SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marquise Brown (BAL WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Onwuasor (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Seahawks 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
2.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 64% · Seahawks 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Ravens · Seahawks

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