luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 10
Dallas Cowboys 37

October 20, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +3 Cowboys about even · −3 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 PHI 30 DAL 33
  2. 2 PHI 30 DAL 35
  3. 3 PHI 3 DAL 12
  4. 4 PHI 24 DAL 35
  5. 5 PHI 5 DAL 19
  6. 6 PHI 19 DAL 36
  7. 7 PHI 21 DAL 42
  8. 8 PHI 16 DAL 41
  9. 9 PHI 16 DAL 45
  10. 10 PHI 2 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 3% of them, Cowboys 97%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.1%
Eagles by 9–160.5%
Eagles by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–86.9%
Cowboys by 9–1618.1%
Cowboys by 17+72.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 21.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 63 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:18 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 10:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:23 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:21 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 370 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +3% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:55 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q2 11:51 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% PHI DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:15 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:30 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nigel Bradham (PHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 27
Luck in points
5.8 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 21.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 3% · Cowboys 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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