Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Bears, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Bears 36–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.1 points to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:14 left): Return touchdown by the Bears, worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 36 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Saints about even · −1 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 10, Bears win 0.
- 1 NO 50 CHI 7
- 2 NO 36 CHI 3
- 3 NO 42 CHI 13
- 4 NO 29 CHI 3
- 5 NO 47 CHI 25
- 6 NO 23 CHI 3
- 7 NO 25 CHI 10
- 8 NO 29 CHI 17
- 9 NO 34 CHI 27
- 10 NO 16 CHI 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.15 | better by 0.02 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.33 | +0.10 | better by 0.42 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.33 | +0.12 | worse by 0.45 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.04 | worse by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 99% of them, Bears 1%. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 84.0% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 11.5% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 3.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Bears by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Saints by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 20.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- W. Lutz, 39 yds made · 89% expected
- W. Lutz, 42 yds missed · 85% expected
- W. Lutz, 52 yds missed · 69% expected
- W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 96% expected
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:37 | Illegal Bat on the Bears (Pat O'Donnell), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 59 snaps before, position avg 1 per 885Blocked punt by the SaintsSpecial teams | +8% NO | NO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:29 | The Bears fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NO | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:19 | The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:14 | Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams | +13% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:43 | The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +8% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 2:22 | W. Lutz missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +12% CHI | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:22 | W. Lutz missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before | +8% CHI | NO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:30 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% NO | CHI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jared Cook (NO TE), out · 0.8 pts
- Trey Hendrickson (NO DE), out · 0.6 pts
- Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 100% · Bears 0%
- Final margin
- Saints by 11
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 20.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 99% · Bears 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · 
Saints · 
Bears
More from Week 7 2019
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 30–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cardinals at Giants ARI 27–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 30–23 · replay 12% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals JAX 27–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons LA 37–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 42–30 · replay 84% for the winner
- Raiders at Packers GB 42–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- 49ers at Washington SF 9–0 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans TEN 23–20 · replay 20% for the winner
- Ravens at Seahawks BAL 30–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 37–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 33–0 · replay 97% for the winner