luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Lions, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 42–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.3 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:52 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 2 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 42
Detroit Lions 30

October 20, 2019 · Ford Field · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +16 Vikings about even · −16 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Lions win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 43 DET 10
  2. 2 MIN 48 DET 24
  3. 3 MIN 55 DET 36
  4. 4 MIN 31 DET 17
  5. 5 MIN 30 DET 20
  6. 6 MIN 31 DET 24
  7. 7 MIN 24 DET 19
  8. 8 MIN 27 DET 24
  9. 9 MIN 20 DET 23
  10. 10 MIN 6 DET 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 84% of them, Lions 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+38.1%
Vikings by 9–1622.5%
Vikings by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Lions by 1–810.0%
Lions by 9–164.2%
Lions by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Bailey, 45 yds missed · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:54 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% DET DET: Punt
2 Q2 14:55 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:06 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q3 13:21 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:56 D. Bailey missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +13% DET MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Logan Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 164 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:58 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% MIN DET: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 79% · Lions 21%

Final margin
Vikings by 12
Luck in points
5.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 84% · Lions 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Vikings · Lions

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