2019 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2019: game by game

The Lions went 3–12–1 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 3.1: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8–1.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Cardinals	T 27–27	70%	−20
Week 2	vs Chargers	W 13–10	28%	+72
Week 3	@ Eagles	W 27–24	64%	+36
Week 4	vs Chiefs	L 30–34	18%	−18
Week 6	@ Packers	L 22–23	44%	−44
Week 7	vs Vikings	L 30–42	16%	−16
Week 8	vs Giants	W 31–26	50%	+50
Week 9	@ Raiders	L 24–31	60%	−60
Week 10	@ Bears	L 13–20	86%	−86
Week 11	vs Cowboys	L 27–35	7%	−7
Week 12	@ Washington	L 16–19	87%	−87
Week 13	vs Bears	L 20–24	34%	−34
Week 14	@ Vikings	L 7–20	13%	−13
Week 15	vs Buccaneers	L 17–38	4%	−4
Week 16	@ Broncos	L 17–27	24%	−24
Week 17	vs Packers	L 20–23	57%	−57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −20 @ ARI

Wk 2 +72 vs LAC

Wk 3 +36 @ PHI

Wk 4 −18 vs KC

Wk 6 −44 @ GB

Wk 7 −16 vs MIN

Wk 8 +50 vs NYG

Wk 9 −60 @ OAK

Wk 10 −86 @ CHI

Wk 11 −7 vs DAL

Wk 12 −87 @ WAS

Wk 13 −34 vs CHI

Wk 14 −13 @ MIN

Wk 15 −4 vs TB

Wk 16 −24 @ DEN

Wk 17 −57 vs GB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Lions’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+14.6	+0.91
Rest	+2.2	+0.14
Fumble bounces	−3.1	−0.20
3rd & 4th downs	−4.9	−0.31
Judgment calls	−16.4	−1.03
Injuries	−44.4	−2.77