luckadjusted

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Vikings, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Lions 20–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.3 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 81% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 7
Minnesota Vikings 20

December 8, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −12

Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 DET 26 MIN 20
  2. 2 DET 27 MIN 30
  3. 3 DET 16 MIN 21
  4. 4 DET 27 MIN 34
  5. 5 DET 19 MIN 29
  6. 6 DET 30 MIN 43
  7. 7 DET 27 MIN 44
  8. 8 DET 24 MIN 45
  9. 9 DET 14 MIN 40
  10. 10 DET 10 MIN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 13% of them, Vikings 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+1.6%
Lions by 9–162.9%
Lions by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Vikings by 1–819.3%
Vikings by 9–1624.0%
Vikings by 17+42.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 6.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • D. Bailey, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:53 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% MIN DET: Punt
2 Q1 12:05 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% DET MIN: Punt
3 Q1 2:33 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% MIN DET: Punt
4 Q2 10:44 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% MIN DET: Punt
5 Q2 2:25 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Anthony Barr), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 792 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +4% DET DET: Missed field goal
6 Q2 1:29 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% DET DET: Missed field goal
7 Q2 1:16 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% MIN DET: Missed field goal
8 Q2 1:10 M. Prater missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 9 of 11 from 45+ before +7% MIN DET: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by d.blough · 5.3 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
6.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 13% · Vikings 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Lions · Vikings

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