Week 14 2019 · December 9, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Giants at Eagles, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Giants 23–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:02 left): Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final (OT)
 New York Giants | 17 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Eagles about even · −11 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 1, Eagles win 9.
- 1 NYG 13 PHI 6
- 2 NYG 11 PHI 13
- 3 NYG 10 PHI 15
- 4 NYG 13 PHI 22
- 5 NYG 29 PHI 41
- 6 NYG 20 PHI 35
- 7 NYG 9 PHI 26
- 8 NYG 16 PHI 36
- 9 NYG 6 PHI 30
- 10 NYG 10 PHI 41
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 11% of them, Eagles 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 52.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- A. Rosas, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Elliott, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Giants 7 for 54 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:52 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% NYG +2.9 pts |
| Q2 4:00 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 4 yards | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards | +3% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:17 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Devante Downs), 10 yards | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:40 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:18 | False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:22 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 10 yards | 0% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:43 | Illegal Contact on the Giants, 5 yards | +4% PHI +1.5 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:02 | The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 12:02 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 10:21 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% NYG | PHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:00 | J. Elliott missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +6% NYG | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:32 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% NYG | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:56 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:35 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% PHI | NYG: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 2% · Eagles 98%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 6
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 11% · Eagles 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · 
Giants · 
Eagles
More from Week 14 2019
- Cowboys at Bears CHI 31–24 · replay 12% for the winner
- Ravens at Bills BAL 24–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons ATL 40–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 27–19 · replay 61% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 38–24 · replay 46% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 20–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Buccaneers TB 38–35 · replay 93% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 22–21 · replay 51% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 48–46 · replay 70% for the winner
- Washington at Packers GB 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chargers at Jaguars LAC 45–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Patriots KC 23–16 · replay 47% for the winner
- Steelers at Cardinals PIT 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Titans at Raiders TEN 42–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 28–12 · replay 87% for the winner