luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2019 · December 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Jets, Week 14 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Dolphins 22–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:47 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yards, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Miami Dolphins 21
New York Jets 22

December 8, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −5

Luck index +49 Jets lucky · −49 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 MIA 31 NYJ 7
  2. 2 MIA 23 NYJ 7
  3. 3 MIA 30 NYJ 20
  4. 4 MIA 16 NYJ 10
  5. 5 MIA 9 NYJ 7
  6. 6 MIA 19 NYJ 21
  7. 7 MIA 14 NYJ 19
  8. 8 MIA 10 NYJ 20
  9. 9 MIA 13 NYJ 27
  10. 10 MIA 13 NYJ 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 49% of them, Jets 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+10.9%
Dolphins by 9–1614.3%
Dolphins by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation6.4%
Jets by 1–821.6%
Jets by 9–1615.6%
Jets by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Jets by 1, without the luck Jets by 8.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Ficken, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Sanders, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Sanders, 34 yds missed · 93% expected
  • J. Sanders, 53 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • S. Ficken, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Ficken, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 48 yards, Jets 5 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:53 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Ken Webster), 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 8:49 Face Mask on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIA +2.5 pts
Q2 8:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards +3% MIA +1.5 pts
Q2 1:16 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% MIA +3.9 pts
Q3 11:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 38 yards +14% MIA +4.1 pts
Q3 4:56 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Jerome Baker), 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q4 11:25 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +12% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q4 8:39 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards +8% MIA +1.0 pts
Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q4 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yards +20% NYJ +1.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:16 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q3 11:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 226 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +14% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q3 6:09 J. Sanders missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +15% NYJ MIA: Punt
4 Q4 11:25 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +12% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 9:27 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
7 Q4 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yardsJudgment calls +20% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 S. Ficken made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +19% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jamal Adams (NYJ SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Le'Veon Bell (NYJ RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ken Crawley (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Taco Charlton (MIA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Calhoun (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 16% · Jets 84%

Final margin
Jets by 1
Luck in points
7.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 49% · Jets 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2019 games · Dolphins · Jets

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