AFC East
New York Jets: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Jets have won 35 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 36.7. Luck cost them 1.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+2.5 wins), the unluckiest 2024 (−2.7).
2026: 2–7 so far, replay wins 3.6 (−1.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–7 | 3.6 | −1.6 | 1–5 | −0.64 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 3.8 | −0.8 | 3–5 | +0.01 | – |
| 2024 | 5–12 | 7.7 | −2.7 | 3–7 | −0.28 | – |
| 2023 | 7–10 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 4–4 | −0.12 | – |
| 2022 | 7–10 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 4–6 | −0.22 | – |
| 2021 | 4–13 | 4.9 | −0.9 | 4–5 | −0.22 | – |
| 2020 | 2–14 | 3.3 | −1.3 | 2–4 | −0.09 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 5–2 | −0.45 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −0.8 | −0.48 | +0.25 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.34 |
| 2024 | −2.7 | +0.45 | −0.68 | −0.50 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.19 |
| 2023 | +1.0 | −0.47 | +0.80 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.38 | −0.10 |
| 2022 | +0.5 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.54 | −0.11 | +0.07 | +0.25 |
| 2021 | −0.9 | −0.38 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.32 |
| 2020 | −1.3 | −0.01 | −0.12 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.29 |
| 2019 | +2.5 | −0.67 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.23 |
| Since 2019 | −1.7 | −1.62 | +0.45 | −0.18 | −0.69 | −0.01 | −1.22 |
Are the Jets lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Jets have won 35 regular-season games from play worth 36.7: −1.7 wins of luck, the 16th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Jets had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from fumble bounces (−1.6 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (−1.2 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 25–33 since 2019, where the replays give them 22.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Jets’ luckiest season?
2019: 7–9 from play worth 4.5 wins, +2.5 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2024: 5–12 from play worth 7.7 (−2.7).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Jets’ luckiest wins
Wins the Jets take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 2 | @ Browns | W 31–30 | 1% | +99 |
| 2019 Week 6 | vs Cowboys | W 24–22 | 3% | +97 |
| 2023 Week 16 | vs Commanders | W 30–28 | 9% | +91 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Falcons | W 27–24 | 9% | +91 |
| 2020 Week 15 | @ Rams | W 23–20 | 19% | +81 |
The Jets’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Jets would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 32–34 | 93% | −93 |
| 2024 Week 8 | @ Patriots | L 22–25 | 86% | −86 |
| 2023 Week 17 | @ Browns | L 20–37 | 73% | −73 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Dolphins | L 21–27 | 71% | −71 |
| 2024 Week 4 | vs Broncos | L 9–10 | 68% | −68 |
