2024 season · final
New York Jets, 2024: game by game
The Jets went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.7 wins. Luck cost them 2.7: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.
Every game
How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ 49ers | L 19–32 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 2 | @ Titans | W 24–17 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 3 | vs Patriots | W 24–3 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | vs Broncos | L 9–10 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 5 | vs Vikings | L 17–23 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 6 | vs Bills | L 20–23 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 7 | @ Steelers | L 15–37 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 8 | @ Patriots | L 22–25 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 9 | vs Texans | W 21–13 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 10 | @ Cardinals | L 6–31 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 11 | vs Colts | L 27–28 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 13 | vs Seahawks | L 21–26 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 14 | @ Dolphins | L 26–32 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | W 32–25 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | vs Rams | L 9–19 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 17 | @ Bills | L 14–40 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 18 | vs Dolphins | W 32–20 | 99% | +1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.45 | +2.5 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| Injuries | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.14 | +1.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.19 | −8.0 |
| Drops | −0.50 | −6.1 |
| Kicks | −0.68 | −34.7 |