luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 19, 2024

Patriots at Jets, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Patriots 24–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.1 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Jets were 68% favorites.

Final

New England Patriots 3
New York Jets 24

September 19, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −6.5

Luck index +12 Jets about even · −12 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Jets win 9.

  1. 1 NE 10 NYJ 3
  2. 2 NE 8 NYJ 10
  3. 3 NE 13 NYJ 17
  4. 4 NE 20 NYJ 27
  5. 5 NE 17 NYJ 26
  6. 6 NE 6 NYJ 17
  7. 7 NE 3 NYJ 16
  8. 8 NE 8 NYJ 23
  9. 9 NE 3 NYJ 23
  10. 10 NE 10 NYJ 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 12% of them, Jets 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.3%
Patriots by 9–162.1%
Patriots by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jets by 1–821.2%
Jets by 9–1629.2%
Jets by 17+36.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 17.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds missed · 81% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jahlani Tavai), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3934 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:09 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% NE NE: Punt
3 Q1 0:40 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Tyler Conklin), 7 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3914 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +4% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:37 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 4307 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q2 0:11 G. Zuerlein missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 51 of 73 from 45+ before +3% NE NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:26 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% NYJ NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Sidy Sow (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 1% · Jets 99%

Final margin
Jets by 21
Luck in points
4.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 12% · Jets 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Patriots · Jets

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