luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Panthers at Raiders, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Raiders 36–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:54 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 14, worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 36
Las Vegas Raiders 22

September 22, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −5.5

Luck index +51 Panthers lucky · −51 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Raiders win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 28 LV 7
  2. 2 CAR 30 LV 16
  3. 3 CAR 29 LV 21
  4. 4 CAR 27 LV 22
  5. 5 CAR 22 LV 20
  6. 6 CAR 27 LV 30
  7. 7 CAR 24 LV 31
  8. 8 CAR 9 LV 19
  9. 9 CAR 13 LV 27
  10. 10 CAR 7 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 49% of them, Raiders 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+10.1%
Panthers by 9–1614.7%
Panthers by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.6%
Raiders by 1–820.5%
Raiders by 9–1615.3%
Raiders by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 57 yds missed · 67% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:57 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% CAR CAR: Punt
3 Q1 0:59 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:54 The Panthers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:33 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:56 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% CAR LV: Punt
7 Q2 3:44 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +5% CAR LV: Punt
8 Q2 0:44 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shy Tuttle (CAR DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 91% · Raiders 9%

Final margin
Panthers by 14
Luck in points
6.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 49% · Raiders 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Panthers · Raiders

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