luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Panthers at Raiders, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Raiders 36–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:54 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 14, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 36
Las Vegas Raiders 22

September 22, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −5.5

Luck index +32 Panthers lucky · −32 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 CAR 34 LV 7
  2. 2 CAR 27 LV 7
  3. 3 CAR 27 LV 13
  4. 4 CAR 31 LV 20
  5. 5 CAR 23 LV 16
  6. 6 CAR 29 LV 24
  7. 7 CAR 23 LV 21
  8. 8 CAR 27 LV 29
  9. 9 CAR 6 LV 14
  10. 10 CAR 23 LV 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 68% of them, Raiders 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+19.5%
Panthers by 9–1620.2%
Panthers by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation2.8%
Raiders by 1–817.8%
Raiders by 9–168.6%
Raiders by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 14, without the luck Panthers by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 57 yds missed · 69% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 51 yards, Raiders 6 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:03 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Raiders, 5 yards +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 8:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 2:32 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q2 9:28 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Panthers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 15 yards +3% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 1:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Ameer Abdullah), 10 yards +3% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 0:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 6 yards 0% LV +0.1 pts
Q3 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 6:49 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% LV +1.1 pts
Q3 6:45 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% LV +2.2 pts
Q4 13:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 15 yards 0% CAR +2.2 pts
Q4 9:28 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 9:22 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Isaiah Pola-Mao), 9 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +3% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:59 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:54 The Panthers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:33 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:56 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% CAR LV: Punt
6 Q2 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1419 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +3% LV LV: Punt
7 Q2 3:44 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% CAR LV: Punt
8 Q2 0:44 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shy Tuttle (CAR DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 95% · Raiders 5%

Final margin
Panthers by 14
Luck in points
5.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 68% · Raiders 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Panthers · Raiders

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