luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Giants at Browns, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Browns 21–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:51 left): Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Cleveland Browns 15

September 22, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +20 Giants about even · −20 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 41 CLE 10
  2. 2 NYG 30 CLE 9
  3. 3 NYG 29 CLE 13
  4. 4 NYG 23 CLE 10
  5. 5 NYG 34 CLE 24
  6. 6 NYG 13 CLE 6
  7. 7 NYG 17 CLE 13
  8. 8 NYG 19 CLE 17
  9. 9 NYG 20 CLE 24
  10. 10 NYG 10 CLE 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

41 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 −0.02 better by 0.11
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed −0.24 +0.13 better by 0.36
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.24 +0.03 worse by 0.27
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.01 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 80% of them, Browns 20%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+35.4%
Giants by 9–1621.1%
Giants by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation1.4%
Browns by 1–812.0%
Browns by 9–165.5%
Browns by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 2.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 53 yds missed · 69% expected
  • G. Joseph, 48 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:42 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 3173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 +9% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 9:51 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2701 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:49 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:38 The Browns fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG CLE: End of half
5 Q4 7:47 The Browns fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYG CLE: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 4:40 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% NYG CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:04 G. Joseph missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 19 of 34 from 45+ before +8% CLE NYG: End of game
8 Q4 2:28 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 42% · Browns 58%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
8.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 80% · Browns 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Giants · Browns

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