luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · September 19, 2024–September 23

Week 3 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Dolphins 24–3 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 6 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 38–33 @ Bengals 29% 26% Lucky
Giants 21–15 @ Browns 32% 81% Deserved
Broncos 26–7 @ Buccaneers 33% 71% Deserved
Rams 27–24 vs 49ers 33% 27% Lucky
Panthers 36–22 @ Raiders 34% 68% Deserved
Packers 30–14 @ Titans 41% 93% Deserved
Eagles 15–12 @ Saints 43% 93% Deserved
Vikings 34–7 vs Texans 44% 85% Deserved

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Commanders W 38–33 @ Bengals 26% +74
2 Rams W 27–24 vs 49ers 27% +73
3 Seahawks W 24–3 vs Dolphins 36% +64
4 Panthers W 36–22 @ Raiders 68% +32
5 Colts W 21–16 vs Bears 69% +31
6 Broncos W 26–7 @ Buccaneers 71% +29
7 Lions W 20–13 @ Cardinals 77% +23
8 Chiefs W 22–17 @ Falcons 79% +21
9 Giants W 21–15 @ Browns 81% +19
10 Vikings W 34–7 vs Texans 85% +15
11 Steelers W 20–10 vs Chargers 87% +13
12 Eagles W 15–12 @ Saints 93% +7
13 Packers W 30–14 @ Titans 93% +7
14 Jets W 24–3 vs Patriots 94% +6
15 Ravens W 28–25 @ Cowboys 97% +3
16 Bills W 47–10 vs Jaguars 99% +1
17 Jaguars L 10–47 @ Bills 1% −1
18 Cowboys L 25–28 vs Ravens 3% −3
19 Patriots L 3–24 @ Jets 6% −6
20 Titans L 14–30 vs Packers 7% −7
21 Saints L 12–15 vs Eagles 7% −7
22 Chargers L 10–20 @ Steelers 13% −13
23 Texans L 7–34 @ Vikings 15% −15
24 Browns L 15–21 vs Giants 19% −19
25 Falcons L 17–22 vs Chiefs 21% −21
26 Cardinals L 13–20 vs Lions 23% −23
27 Buccaneers L 7–26 vs Broncos 29% −29
28 Bears L 16–21 @ Colts 31% −31
29 Raiders L 22–36 vs Panthers 32% −32
30 Dolphins L 3–24 @ Seahawks 64% −64
31 49ers L 24–27 @ Rams 73% −73
32 Bengals L 33–38 vs Commanders 74% −74