Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024
Chiefs at Falcons, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Falcons 22–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: drops alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:56 left): the Falcons were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 35 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Final
 Kansas City Chiefs | 22 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Chiefs about even · −21 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chiefs win 8, Falcons win 2.
- 1 KC 36 ATL 9
- 2 KC 30 ATL 10
- 3 KC 33 ATL 17
- 4 KC 30 ATL 18
- 5 KC 27 ATL 17
- 6 KC 17 ATL 10
- 7 KC 34 ATL 30
- 8 KC 26 ATL 24
- 9 KC 17 ATL 20
- 10 KC 20 ATL 31
Your call
Did the Chiefs earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chiefs win 79% of them, Falcons 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chiefs by 17+ | 30.0% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 12.0% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 53 yds made · 75% expected
- H. Butker, 44 yds made · 86% expected
- H. Butker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
- Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 73% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Chiefs 6 for 61 yards, Falcons 6 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:07 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Leo Chenal), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:10 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:51 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 8 yards | +2% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 15 yards | +5% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball on the Falcons (Bijan Robinson), 10 yards | +3% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.2 pts |
| Q3 1:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Ross Dwelley), 10 yards | +1% KC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 5 yards | +3% KC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:44 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Justin Reid), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:26 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 11 yards | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Chiefs (Jaylen Watson), 15 yards | +15% ATL +1.4 pts |
Chiefs penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:51 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3373 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +8% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 1:21 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 6:30 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% KC | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 6:08 | The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +14% ATL | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 4:08 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +14% KC | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:51 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Chiefs (Jaylen Watson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1803 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +15% ATL | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:03 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% KC | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:56 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +35% KC | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Charles Omenihu (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chiefs 96% · Falcons 4%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 9.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chiefs 79% · Falcons 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · 
Chiefs · 
Falcons
More from Week 3 2024
- Patriots at Jets NYJ 24–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Colts IND 21–16 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Buccaneers DEN 26–7 · replay 71% for the winner
- Packers at Titans GB 30–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Vikings MIN 34–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chargers at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Browns NYG 21–15 · replay 81% for the winner
- Eagles at Saints PHI 15–12 · replay 93% for the winner
- Panthers at Raiders CAR 36–22 · replay 68% for the winner
- Dolphins at Seahawks SEA 24–3 · replay 36% for the winner
- Ravens at Cowboys BAL 28–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams LA 27–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bills BUF 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Bengals WAS 38–33 · replay 26% for the winner