luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Packers at Titans, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Titans 30–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 7.9 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:58 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 28 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 30
Tennessee Titans 14

September 22, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 GB 45 TEN 13
  2. 2 GB 37 TEN 14
  3. 3 GB 35 TEN 17
  4. 4 GB 27 TEN 13
  5. 5 GB 27 TEN 14
  6. 6 GB 16 TEN 7
  7. 7 GB 20 TEN 14
  8. 8 GB 24 TEN 20
  9. 9 GB 18 TEN 16
  10. 10 GB 10 TEN 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

31 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.13 better by 0.16
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.00 +0.09 better by 0.10
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.00 +0.04 worse by 0.04
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.05 worse by 0.23

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 86% of them, Titans 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+40.3%
Packers by 9–1624.0%
Packers by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Titans by 1–88.7%
Titans by 9–163.1%
Titans by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 24.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Narveson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Narveson, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:47 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:01 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q1 1:10 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedJ. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 84 catchable balls before this +7% TEN GB: Field goal
5 Q1 1:08 B. Narveson made 21-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +6% TEN GB: Opp touchdown
6 Q1 0:58 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +28% GB TEN: Punt
7 Q2 4:37 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q2 1:38 The Packers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Love (GB QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.4 pts
  • Carrington Valentine (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 100% · Titans 0%

Final margin
Packers by 16
Luck in points
8.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 24.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 86% · Titans 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Packers · Titans

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