luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Ravens at Cowboys, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cowboys 28–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Cowboys: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Ravens were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:58 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Dallas Cowboys 25

September 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −1.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 48 DAL 10
  2. 2 BAL 42 DAL 13
  3. 3 BAL 27 DAL 3
  4. 4 BAL 30 DAL 10
  5. 5 BAL 41 DAL 24
  6. 6 BAL 31 DAL 17
  7. 7 BAL 31 DAL 20
  8. 8 BAL 39 DAL 31
  9. 9 BAL 34 DAL 28
  10. 10 BAL 27 DAL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cowboys

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

32 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.57 +0.12 better by 0.45
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.01 worse by 0.07
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.13 worse by 0.04
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.57 +0.09 worse by 0.48

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 97% of them, Cowboys 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+70.4%
Ravens by 9–1618.1%
Ravens by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation0.9%
Cowboys by 1–82.6%
Cowboys by 9–160.5%
Cowboys by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Ravens by 16.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 65 yds made · 40% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 13 for 105 yards, Cowboys 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 14:18 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 13:08 False Start on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +1.2 pts
Q1 12:18 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% BAL +1.3 pts
Q2 12:33 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 6:06 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 13:12 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% DAL +1.9 pts
Q3 10:13 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards +1% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 10:07 Face Mask on the Ravens (Eddie Jackson), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.8 pts
Q3 9:53 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 4:20 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% DAL +1.3 pts
Q3 2:30 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +1.0 pts
Q3 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 1:11 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 0:55 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards 0% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 3:59 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marcus Williams), 5 yards +1% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 3:50 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Chris Board), 10 yards +9% DAL +0.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q1 12:18 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1616 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +5% BAL DAL: Punt
3 Q1 7:26 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 6:38 B. Aubrey made a 65-yard field goalKicks · 40% expected for him, 17 of 17 from 45+ before +7% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q4 3:50 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1887 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:58 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Chris Board), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2720 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% DAL –
8 Q4 2:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
13.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 97% · Cowboys 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Ravens · Cowboys

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